Man City Turnaround? PSG Flawless Ride? Fall Of Bavarians? What To Expect In UCL Second Legs This Week
Following last week’s first leg fixtures in the UEFA Champions League UCL three teams now have a 90 per cent chance or better of qualifying for the last 16: Paris SG (99.1 per cent), Borussia Dortmund (97.1 per cent) and Bayern Munich (93.8 per cent).
After suffering a late defeat in the first leg last week (2-3), reigning champions Manchester City have just a 19.8 per cent chance of eliminating Real Madrid at the Santiago Bernabéu.
According to the Opta Predictor, the most balanced fixture heading into the second legs is Milan versus Feyenoord, with Sérgio Conceição’s side only fractionally favoured to progress (50.2 per cent to 49.8 per cent). Ahead of the second legs, we look at some of the major games.
Milan v Feyenoord (agg: 0-1)
Milan have lost two of their three meetings with Feyenoord in the European Cup/Uefa Champions League, although both of those defeats have come away. Their only home game against them was a 1-0 victory in November 1969 (first leg of a last 16 tie).
Feyenoord have lost five of their six away games against Italian sides in the European Cup/Uefa Champions League, only managing to avoid defeat in February 2000 v Lazio (a 2-1 win). Indeed, the only one of those six games to take place in the knockout stages was a 0-1 defeat to Milan in the 1969-70 campaign.
Milan have failed to progress from five of their six Uefa Champions League ties when losing the first leg, with their only such progression coming in 2006-07 versus Manchester United (lost 2-3 in the first leg, won 3-0 in the second leg of the semifinals). With look of things, it could turn out to be a tough game for Milan so we predict Feyenoord 2-1 win on aggregate.
Benfica v Monaco (agg: 1-0)
Benfica have won both of their matches against Monaco this season (3-2 in November 2024 and 1-0 in the first leg of this tie). They’ve never previously won more games against the same opponent in a European campaign, while the last side to beat an opponent three times in the same season in the Uefa Champions League was Barcelona versus Paris SG in 2014-15.
Should Monaco fail to win this game, Benfica will become the team they have faced most often in major European competition without managing a victory (5 games – currently P4 D1 L3).
Benfica have progressed from three of their four Uefa Champions League knockout ties after winning the first leg, with their only failure to do so coming in 2016-17 against Borussia Dortmund (won 1-0 in the first leg, lost 0-4 in the second leg in a last 16 tie).
Benfica have only won one of their last eight home matches in the Uefa Champions League (D2 L5), with that victory coming against Atlético de Madrid in October (4-0). Their last home game in the competition was a 4-5 defeat to Barcelona – one of only two times that a side have scored 4+ in a Champions League match and still lost (also Legia Warsaw 4-8 Borussia Dortmund in November 2016). In this game, we expect Benfica to pip Monaco to the round of 16.
Atalanta v Club Brugge (agg: 1-2)
Atalanta progressed from their first two major European ties after losing the first leg in the 1987-88 Cup Winners’ Cup against Merthyr Tydfil (first round) and OFI (last 16) but they have been eliminated in their last three ties when losing the first leg since then.
Club Brugge won the first leg against Atalanta 2-1 but they have been eliminated on 16 occasions in major European competitions when they’ve won the first leg of a knockout tie, more than any other side in history.
Club Brugge’s last away win against an Italian side in European competition was in October 2003 (1-0 v Milan in the Uefa Champions League). Since then, Brugge have failed to win on all seven of their away trips to face Italian opponents in Europe (D2 L5), including a 1-3 defeat to Milan earlier this season.
Atalanta won their last home game in the Uefa Champions League (5-0 v Sturm Graz), ending a five-game winless run on home soil (D3 L2). They’ve never previously won consecutive games at the Gewiss Stadium in the competition (played at the Giuseppe Meazza in 2019-20 when they beat Dinamo Zagreb and Valencia). Despite Atlanta’s injury woes, we expect them to progress to the next round 4-1 on aggregate.
Bayern Munich v Celtic (agg: 2-1)
Bayern Munich have won their last five home European matches against Scottish opponents and have never at home against a Scottish team (W7 D3).
Celtic have been eliminated in their last nine major European knockout ties when they’ve lost the first leg, since going through against 1. FC Köln in the first round of the 1992-93 Uefa Cup (0-2 first leg, 3-0 second leg). They’ve never progressed when losing the first leg at home, however (seven previous instances).
Bayern Munich have progressed from their last 13 Uefa Champions League knockout ties when they’ve won the first leg. The last time they were knocked out was in the last 16 against Internazionale in 2010-11, winning 1-0 in Italy in the first leg before losing 3-2 in the second leg and going out on away goals.
Celtic have played 15 away games against German opposition in Europe, and are still looking for their first such victory (D3 L12). Indeed, they’ve lost on their last five trips there by an aggregate score of 4-18, with their most recent game in Germany being a 1-7 defeat to Borussia Dortmund earlier this season. No doubt Bayern Munich is a formidable name in European football but their defensive record also poses a major threat to them in the second leg, with Celtic being the underdog and a side who is disciplined in attack and defense, we will give them a change to upset the odds and beat Bayern on penalties after a keenly contested extra time.
Madrid vs Man City (agg 3-2)
Man City’s fresh faces offer hope of Madrid miracle?
Manchester City boss Pep Guardiola said his side have just a one per cent chance of progress to the Champions League last 16 against Real Madrid on Wednesday but the English champions’ new recruits could offer a lifeline.
City blew a late 2-1 lead in the first leg of the play-off tie last week at home to lose 3-2 to the holders.
That collapse was part of a wider trend this season as Guardiola’s ageing squad have struggled to last the pace, particularly when the intensity is turned up on Champions League nights.
As a consequence, City broke with their usual transfer policy to spend big in January, bringing in Omar Marmoush, Abdukodir Khusanov, Vitor Reis and Nico Gonzalez for fees totalling £170 million ($214 million).
However, none of them started the first leg against Madrid. Marmoush was the only one to even make an appearance for the final few minutes off the bench, as Gonzalez and Khusanov were unused substitutes and Reis was not registered in City’s European squad.
Guardiola may now regret that decision after Marmoush, Gonzalez and Khusanov all played pivotal roles in arguably City’s best performance of the season on Saturday when Newcastle were blown away 4-0 at the Etihad. While this game is expected to offer yet another cracker, we however tip Real Madrid to progress, as the Los Blancos are not known for letting lead slip off them at this stage of the competiton.
Luis Enrique savours special moment at in-form PSG
Paris St Germain have scored 23 goals in their last seven games in all competitions and the French side are on a 17-match unbeaten run, with manager Luis Enrique saying on Friday that he was delighted by his in-form team’s goal-scoring exploits.
PSG top the Ligue 1 standings with 53 points from 21 matches, 10 more than second-placed Olympique de Marseille. The Parisian side also seized control of their Champions League playoff with a commanding 3-0 first-leg win at Brest on Tuesday. We do not expect any problem for PSG against their Ligue One counterparts so it should be another walk in the park for PSG.
